Online and social media data are a new frontier of information. Social media data has been analyzed to explore public understanding of public health crises, like the Zika Virus, and to question whether natural disasters with more social and online media posts receive more aid or funding (answer: they do not). Just last week, we used social and online media data to explore the buzz around holiday shopping during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. But social media has its challenges. You post only your best life on Twitter. You might say things that are not accurate, and not everyone is well represented.
There is another online data source that knows more about us than social media could ever hope to. It’s that little bar into which we (apparently) type our deepest secrets, even the really, really unflattering stuff – the kind that would (and should) make other people recoil if they could link it back to you. It’s the Google search bar and its resulting data.
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz’s book “Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are,” delves into topics using Google search data. People tell Google things they might not tell anyone else: not their friends, their spouse, or their doctor. Seth also posits – and I think I agree – that search data may reveal lies we even tell ourselves. So, it isn’t just that we lie to others; we lie to ourselves too. Considering how much better Google search data reflects reality in the topics explored in the book compared to survey data or other more traditional data sources, it seems that we’re not as prone to lying to Google (or at least not nearly as much).
Let’s face it: the Black Friday mayhem isn’t exactly a flattering look for us (society). The day after, we give thanks for all we have as we watch the news to see people fighting one another (and not just figuratively) for a reduced-price small kitchen appliance.
We gathered 7,043,573 online and social media posts about shopping during the Thanksgiving weekend into Cyber Monday. A full report of the findings can be found in last week’s letter. Overall, Cyber Monday had far fewer posts and mentions but with a higher net sentiment. Given Black Friday shoppers often have to wait in lines in the cold, sometimes are faced with altercations of over-eager fellow shoppers, and are engaged in a physical hunt for a product (which might sell out before they get to it), it’s not hard to imagine the negatives associated. Cyber Monday, in contrast, can be undertaken in one’s pajamas from the comfort of their smartphone. Thus, the higher net sentiment is believable and reasonable.
Given the nature of social media data, and the availability of Google Search data on the topic, we sought to investigate if online searches about shopping, Black Friday and Cyber Monday mirrored the timing associated with the growth in conversations on social media. Google Search data is presented as ‘interest over time’ rather than absolute numbers of media posts or mentions. Specifically, “Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. A score of 0 means there was not enough data for this term.”
The analysis spans five years of web search data focusing on shopping, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday. It’s worth noting that the peak popularity for both shopping and Black Friday occurred the week of 11/24/2019. As anticipated, Cyber Monday peaked in popularity one week later, during the week of 12/1/2019. There was one other week during which popularity peaked again, exclusive to shopping searches, specifically the week of 11/20/2022. Interestingly, the overall interest in shopping never drops below 56. Predictably, Black Friday and Cyber Monday predominantly register at 0, with pronounced but short-lived spikes in searches during consecutive weeks each year.
In this case, when delving into shopping with particular focus on events immediately following the Thanksgiving holiday, it seems that both online and social media and Google Search data reflect the real-world interest in the topic. In other words, both online media data and search data mirror reality as measured in retail spending, going-to-market activity, and the like. Even though physically fighting over a toy as an adult in a retail establishment is unflattering, it seems we’re rather consistent in what we search for versus what we talk about. Numerous other topics exist where search data and social media data may not align – topics that are more sensitive in nature, perhaps, or even less flattering than instances of retail violence. We shall investigate.
ConsumerCorner.2023.Letter.30
