Reviewer

Dr. Jay Akridge, Trustee Chair in Teaching and Learning Excellence and Professor, Purdue University

Articles

What Employees Need from Leaders in Uncertain Times by Timothy Clark

Why Some Companies Grow Amid Uncertainty – and Others Don’t by Simon Freakley and David Garfield

Sources

Clark, Timothy R. “What Employees Need from Leaders in Uncertain Times.” Harvard Business Review, Harvard Business Review, 28 Feb. 2024, hbr.org/2024/02/what-employees-need-from-leaders-in-uncertain-times.

Freakley, Simon, and David Garfield. “Why Some Companies Grow amid Uncertainty – and Others Don’t.” Harvard Business Review, Harvard Business Review, 25 Mar. 2024, hbr.org/2024/03/why-some-companies-grow-amid-uncertainty-and-others-dont.

 

Summary

Risk and uncertainty are part of every leader’s world – but the difference between the two concepts matters and is not well understood. With risks, we don’t know what is going to happen, but we can put odds on the outcomes (blackjack is risky, but not uncertain). Uncertainty may be foreseeable, but we can’t begin to fully understand all the implications (we don’t know enough to lay odds). As such, savvy leaders think about these concepts differently. Two recent Harvard Business Review articles take up how leaders can best address uncertainty with their teams and how some firms find growth opportunities even in highly uncertain times. We will start with leaders, uncertainty and their teams.

“Why do we hire leaders? … we hire leaders to guide us through uncertainty.” So begins Clark’s article on what employees need from leaders in uncertain times. The focus is not the typical ups and downs that are part of any leader’s daily life. Clark is focused on “inflections, disruptions, dislocations … that pile up … and volatility (that) becomes potentially debilitating to … the organization.” Four useful insights are offered for leading in such extraordinarily uncertain times:

  • Create thick trust – Leaders can counter unpredictability with their own predictability. Being a leader who delivers on commitments, approaches decisions in a consistent way, and has earned the trust of their team becomes a “repository for the team’s fears” and allows the team to move ahead with confidence.
  • Inoculate with vision – If your firm has a compelling vision, teams can lean on that vision to get them through difficult times. The message: Today we are being whipsawed by external factors beyond our control, but we know where we are going, we will find a path through, and our destination matters.
  • Increase honesty and transparency – Hollow promises such as “you won’t be affected by the current challenges we are facing” won’t cut it. False hope is much more damaging to team morale than the truth. Neither will silence. Teams will fill that void with chatter about the worst possible outcomes, putting even more pressure on morale. More honest and frequent communication is key.
  • Frame uncertainty as opportunity – Foreshadowing the next article, by framing uncertainty as creating opportunity, leaders can help their teams focus their energy on making the most of chaotic times. Contrast this mindset with that of an organization hunkering down, pulling back and waiting out challenging periods.

Addressing this last point, Freakley and Garfield explore why some firms are able to take advantage of uncertainty while others cannot. Their annual AlixPartners Disruption Index surveys 3,000 global executives about “what is knocking them sideways.”  Some key characteristics of firms that find opportunity in uncertainty include:

  • Prioritize disruptive forces – Periods of extraordinary uncertainty bring multiple challenging headwinds. The most successful firms make choices and prioritize the most important of those headwinds as they develop their plans.
  • Drive disruption/embrace change – Those who find growth in uncertain times tend to be the same firms that create disruption in their industry in “normal” times. Such firms are not afraid of major changes in their business model.
  • Learn/develop people/use data – Superior performers promoted (and expected) learning at every level of the organization, focusing on the professional development of their people – themselves included. Interestingly, these leaders “appetite for advice was 20 percentage points higher” than leaders of less successful companies. And data infused their decisions at much higher levels.
  • Prioritize pace over perfection – Freakley and Garfield argue you need the ability to take a punch during uncertain times (resilience), but you also need to be able to throw a punch. The most successful leaders focused on getting ahead of problems, not belaboring decisions, and on execution and follow-through rather than deep strategic analysis to identify the “perfect path.” While “Let’s wait this out” may seem like a more prudent response, successful firms moved forward even if the path was not smooth and straight.
  • Act, learn, act again – Firms capitalizing on uncertainty had a penchant for action, not analysis – in part because the unknowable nature of uncertainty means no amount of analysis will get you the right answer. Probe, test and respond: learn, trial and determine what path may be best. Then, take action, learn from that action, refine/redirect/reload and act again.

What does this mean for food and agricultural business?

To say the business environment facing food and agribusiness managers is uncertain is a gross understatement. Pick almost any area: international trade and markets for food and agricultural products; labor and immigration; food safety regulations; environmental policy and farming practices; or the implications of emerging tax and spending policy on inflation and interest rates. Add to that the impact of war and other conflicts on global economic growth. A challenging time, but this is why we need leaders “to guide us through uncertainty.” Your team needs you even more when the future is so very cloudy. They need your steady hand; they need to be reminded that there will be another day and that you will continue to make progress toward your vision despite the challenges. They need to hear from you – honestly, authentically and regularly. You need to help them see opportunity in the uncertainty – and to do that, you have to see it as well.

Making decisions in highly uncertain environments is different than navigating the normal ups and downs of a market. You need to dig deeply into the most fundamental factors impacting your business and your customers’ business. Winning in uncertain times meaning embracing the inevitable change that uncertainty brings. It means learning throughout the organization and working to clarify and better understand the uncertainty every day – putting data to work. Ultimately, it means a penchant for action, not sitting on your hands and waiting for the proverbial storm to clear. It means making decisions, learning quickly from those decisions and refining/refocusing as needed. You can’t know all of the edges, angles and implications that uncertainty brings. And while time will ultimately clarify the uncertainty, and the unknowable will become known, successful firms figure that out along the way rather than waiting for that day.

It’s easy to get caught up in waves of new development and challenges in our markets, economy and world. In these highly volatile times, food and agribusiness managers should remember that what your team needs from you is different and that such times present real opportunity for the prepared.